COVID’s Origins and Masking: Are We Certain?

The Department of Energy (Energy!) recently reported with low confidence that the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic was the escape of a genetically modified virus. This assertion was quickly presented as fact by the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and others. Yet, the consensus of scientists and health leaders remains that the virus is a zoonosis, meaning in migrated from animals to people. In reality, we simply don’t know.

Similarly, a recent review of the impact of masking was presented as saying masks don’t work. That is incorrect. The review states, “There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks.” Mask interventions are hard to study because people use them inconsistently and incorrectly. We’ve all witnessed this. Unfortunately, there’s just not good science about whether masks work or not. Again, we simply don’t know.

The common thread between these two recent chapters in the COVID-19 Pandemic—and much of the pandemic overall—is that we struggle with uncertainty. We want certainty, and, as a result, we live in an information ecosystem that values certainty over truth. But, science pursues truth, and that’s implicitly uncertain. 

So, how do we navigate uncertainty to create a better world? It’s important to understand how the pandemic might have started so we can prevent the next one. That includes both being more careful about genetic modification and about animal husbandry. 

And, we need to think through the individual and collective risks and benefits of mask wearing. The risks of mask wearing are generally very low though I worry about the impact of masks on childhood learning. Meanwhile, the benefits depend on both the community prevalence of respiratory disease and the individual risk of health consequences for the mask-wearer and their close contacts. It’s tricky—and very personal—math.

Maybe, the biggest lesson is to be skeptical of certainty. Over the past several years, I have become less confident about people who seem very certain in their opinions. Nuance seems important. But, I have low confidence in that pronouncement.